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Each of our portfolio managers give you their analysis of current economic trends within their targeted area of investment. |
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Q4 2011 Letter : “Risk On, Risk Off” by Will WurmWe continue to believe the market reflects the influence of two strong and opposing forces, deleveraging and deflation versus central bank induced currency debasement and inflation. As investors recalibrate the probabilities of various outcomes, sectors and assets fall into and out of favor in rapid fashion. The strategy employed and portfolio performance is dependent on determining which will prevail. This does not follow the typically expected business cycle and therefore continues to foster investor anxiety and indecision. A look at the whipsaw behavior of the indexes this past year accurately reflects the confusion. |
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Q4 2011 Letter : A Year of Waiting by Mark SternPerhaps the S&P 500 index best summed up 2011 by ending the year just two hundredths of a point lower. Last year in many respects was a year of waiting; waiting for the signs of resolution to the European crisis, waiting for Congress to act on routine business to prevent government shutdown, and waiting for China’s policymakers to ease up on their effort to restrain the overheating economy. It was frustrating and the extreme volatility was unnerving. As we begin this year amid what seems like great uncertainty I can make one bullish observation: expectations are very low. |
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Q4 2011 Letter : Volatility by John PrestonVolatility characterized the market in 2011 with the S&P 500 up 9%, down 21%, up 12%, then down 10% and finally up 17%, driven by the “news from Europe,” obscuring a positive trend as the year closed. |
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